ABNA24 - Saudi Arabia has launched an investigation to determine the cause of the failure of its air defense against Yemeni missile and drone attacks.
Two regional officials announced on Monday, October 12, that Saudi Arabia has launched an investigation to determine the cause of its air defense's failure to intercept a wave of missiles and drones fired by the Yemeni army; attacks that included an attack on Riyadh Airport and left at least 13 dead and more than 300 wounded. According to them, preliminary assessments indicate that the Yemeni army first fired several drones to pave the way for a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles to reach King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh.
The failure of Saudi air defense to intercept the recent wave of missiles and drones from the Yemeni army cannot be considered merely a technical error or an isolated incident; this event is a sign of a deep gap in Saudi Arabia's security architecture and a shift in the balance of power in the Yemen war. In this regard, Riyadh has launched an investigation to determine why the defense systems were unable to issue the necessary warning before the attacks and how the missiles and drones were able to cover a distance of more than a thousand kilometers to King Khalid Airport, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of Saudi air defense.
The first reason for this failure must be sought in the Yemeni army's combined and saturation tactics. Preliminary assessments indicate that these forces first fired several drones to pave the way for a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles to reach Riyadh Airport. This method confronts the defense with multiple simultaneous targets at different altitudes, speeds, and trajectories. Low-altitude and slower drones can attract the attention and interceptor munitions, while cruise and ballistic missiles penetrate from other angles. Systems such as Patriot, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles in the terminal phase, become more vulnerable against such a combination, especially against low-altitude targets.
The second reason is the technical capability of the Yemeni army's warheads. The advanced warheads of Yemeni missiles can change course during flight. This feature makes interception calculations extremely difficult, because the defense system must predict the target's new path and recalculate the interception point in a fraction of a second. If the radar and command network cannot detect this course change in time, the interceptor missile deviates from the target. In addition, the flight of more than a thousand kilometers by the missiles and drones shows that the Yemeni army has been able to increase its range and accuracy, and this issue has exposed Saudi Arabia's strategic depth to threat.
The third reason is the weakness in early warning and intelligence coordination. In this regard, Riyadh's goal is to understand why the air defense did not issue the necessary warning before the attack. The absence of timely warning can be due to gaps in radar coverage, difficulty in detecting low-altitude targets, electronic jamming, or slowness in the decision-making chain. In asymmetric wars, even a few minutes of delay between detection, decision, and firing can lead to the penetration of drones and missiles. Also, Saudi Arabia's dependence on U.S. intelligence and support, in a situation where Washington refrains from direct attack on Yemen, has exacerbated this weakness.
The dimensions of this failure are not only military. Riyadh International Airport was shut down and employees in the financial district of the Saudi capital were ordered to work remotely. This means the Yemeni army's attack has been able to put pressure on Saudi Arabia's political, economic, and symbolic center. The threat against all Saudi airports, except Mecca and Medina, reduces the confidence of international airlines and raises security and insurance costs. On the other hand, the failure of air defense undermines the credibility and deterrence of the Saudi-led coalition and forces Riyadh to request more direct help from the United States.
The strategic consequences of this situation could be very extensive. If the United States enters the battle against Yemen more directly, the Yemeni army may halt traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This strait, at the southern end of the Red Sea and near the coast of Yemen, is a vital route for oil transfer from the Persian Gulf. Given the current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the closure or insecurity of Bab al-Mandab could further increase global oil and gas prices and add inflationary pressure on the U.S. and global economy. On the eve of the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, this issue is very costly for Donald Trump; because the expansion of the war could increase the anger of voters dissatisfied with inflation and gasoline and diesel prices and lead to a heavy defeat for the Republicans.
It seems that Saudi Arabia's failure to intercept Yemeni missiles shows that the Saudis' adventurism in Yemen has entered a dangerous stage. The Yemeni army, with a combination of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, has transferred the war of attrition to the depths of Saudi territory and challenged its air and missile defense. Given the numerous failures, it seems that Riyadh needs to review its defense architecture, strengthen early warning, counter drones, and reduce dependence on expensive interceptors to change the current situation. However, past experiences show that the Yemeni army has introduced new tactics and weapons in response to every Saudi action to counter Yemeni missiles and drones./
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